Sunday, August 27, 2006
Sandisk One Step Ahead of Apple, Will Apple Leapfrog Samsung?
Posted by Damion Chaplin in "HARDWARE" @ 11:00 AM
"It's not often I make predictions here, but yesterday I had an "aha" moment spurred by sites abuzz with Reuters report that SanDisk is launching the Sansa e280, an 8GB version of their e2xxx series for $249.99. This little device will hold about 2,000 songs, double the capacity of the similarly priced iPod Nano. Meanwhile prices on their 2GB, 4GB, and 8GB models are being dropped an average of 30%. This may sound like just another product announcement, but I believe this is much more. This is the equivalent of a shot across the bow of every MP3 player in the market and a new price war is underway... In Q1/Q2, once IM Flash is ramping up, the new Nano/Nano replacement will come out, and a price battle will kick into overdrive. The smaller sized chips + lower price to Apple gives them an edge on size of device, capacity, and without a major price differential."
With Sandisk releasing an 8GB version of the Sansa, and the Nano still stuck at 4GB (and at the same price no less), Sandisk is currently king of the hill in the flash player realm. Of course, Sandisk can offer such great pricing because they own the flash memory manufacturing plants, which gets them NAND at prices much lower than Apple. Apple, however, has partnered with others to create IM Flash, who is currently working on 50nm NAND flash (current NAND is 500nm, 10x bigger), which will allow Apple to get much smaller NAND at 'unparalleled' pricing. Sean Alexander predicts that we'll see this new NAND in the upcoming iPhone, and in a new version of the Nano in Q1 2007. I'm going to make my own prediction and say if Apple doesn't have a new version of the Nano by Xmas, they may find themselves in trouble. I also predict that sales of the iPhone won't be anywhere near enough to offset no new Nano until next year. And for all we know, the iPhone will be delayed until Q1 2007. They still have to find a carrier to partner with, after all.
And, of course, none of this means anything without sales numbers to back it up. Until then, it's sheer speculation. It does get one thinking though...
With Sandisk releasing an 8GB version of the Sansa, and the Nano still stuck at 4GB (and at the same price no less), Sandisk is currently king of the hill in the flash player realm. Of course, Sandisk can offer such great pricing because they own the flash memory manufacturing plants, which gets them NAND at prices much lower than Apple. Apple, however, has partnered with others to create IM Flash, who is currently working on 50nm NAND flash (current NAND is 500nm, 10x bigger), which will allow Apple to get much smaller NAND at 'unparalleled' pricing. Sean Alexander predicts that we'll see this new NAND in the upcoming iPhone, and in a new version of the Nano in Q1 2007. I'm going to make my own prediction and say if Apple doesn't have a new version of the Nano by Xmas, they may find themselves in trouble. I also predict that sales of the iPhone won't be anywhere near enough to offset no new Nano until next year. And for all we know, the iPhone will be delayed until Q1 2007. They still have to find a carrier to partner with, after all.
And, of course, none of this means anything without sales numbers to back it up. Until then, it's sheer speculation. It does get one thinking though...
