Digital Home Thoughts: The HD TV Evolution: Part 6 – Resolution Wars

Marketing Strategy
From the manufacturers’ point of view, this makes sense because it allows them to segment and stratify the market the way they like it into: “good”, “better”, and “best”, with a nice price differential between the categories. In addition, for once, the stratification won’t be artificial but real and easy to explain to consumers. “Good” will be 720 displays, “better” will be 1080 displays, and “best” will (initially) be big 1080 displays with advanced color systems. Soon—possibly as soon as '07/'08—“best” will be defined as QUAD-HD (3840x2160—play with the math and see why).

This stratification will be mapped differently across technologies, of course. LCD vendors have the advantage that their tech allows for HDTVs ranging from 19” to 56” today, with bigger models to come, so there will be plenty of room in the design (and pricing) space for different vendors to distinguish their products. Rear-projector vendors will likely take a slightly different tack using triple-LCD and low-res DLP chips on 720 displays as their entry-level loss-leaders. This will hopefully draw traffic and sell the idea of rear projection TVs to folks overly-enthused about flat panels and then highlight the limited cost differential between the entry level and the larger, noticeably sharper, LCOS and high-res DLP models. Not quite a bait and switch, but a reliable, proven sales pitch…

This is how the HDTV market of '07 and beyond shapes up, folks:
LCD and rear-projection vendors are going to position 720 displays as the low-end, in the full understanding that their competitors committed to Plasma displays (Matsushita, for one) will be at a disadvantage in a playing field defined by resolution. Small, cheap LCDs and large, cheap triple-LCD rear projectors will sell the idea of 720 as low end products and till the soil for the Premium-priced 1080 and Quad-HD products.

Technology
The way it works out, 1080 resolution is actually dirt cheap to achieve for rear-projection vendors. DLP manufacturers can use wobulation to tile lower-res blocks generated by lower-than-1080 chips if they don’t want to spring for the newest 1080-native chips. A bit of firmware coding and color-wheel tweaking and they’re in business... (metaphorically speaking). The expectation is that DLP manufacturers will have completed the transition to a 1080-dominated lineup by the second half of '06.

The LCOS vendors apparently have a bit of 720 fabrication capability to write off, as they only expect to completely move to 1080 by the first-half of '07. The way one LCOS manufacturer rep described it was that, for their tech, two million pixels per chip is no harder than one million. (Have to wonder if INTEL agrees).

On the LCD side, the transition does involve new manufacturing facilities but apparently all the major players have already designed their new capacity coming online this year for the higher-resolution panels. So, they're ready for a phased transition from the top down (40”+ panels first, followed by 37” and possibly even 32”-ers) starting the second half of this year. Beyond that, second-tier vendors looking to improve their credibility are already starting to show off QUAD-HD LCD panels for (promised) late '06 early '07 release.

QUAD-HD is the next frontier in the resolution wars, but most consumers won’t have to worry about that particular battle until 2009 or so. Just keep it in mind: 1080 isn’t the end of the road for HD video and advanced electronics can extract enough meaningful data from a 1080i stream to productively drive even a QUAD-HD display. Plus, even as we speak, plans are apparently afoot to establish standards for QUAD-HD video. NHK in Japan has done some interesting demonstrations. Check this for a brief intro: http://www.arnnet.com.au/index.php?id=1909545513.

Even PDP vendors are getting into the game, with both Panasonic and Pioneer announcing 50” 1080p product for this summer. LG already has a 65” product and is promising a 75” panel. Neither is likely to be a volume product but at least it shows the flag…

The thing to keep in mind is that the move to 1080 is not a technical matter and it is not up for debate; the issue is economic and competitive and the decisions that matter have already been made by the players that matter.

Of course, manufacturers and retailers have to clear out the pipeline of the existing premium 720 products. So, anybody who truly prefers 720 displays should be on the look-out for bargains as they close out the existing models and replace them with feature-lean models intended to serve a lower-priced market. You have been warned: you can’t buy what isn’t sold, after all, and moving forward, the feature-rich, mid-range and high-end replacements for today's models will be 1080s, not 720.